Trading activity surged on a prediction market platform following speculation surrounding a potential U.S. and Israeli strike on Iran, with more than $529 million wagered on contracts linked to the timing of such an attack.

Market data cited by Bloomberg shows unusually high participation in bets predicting a strike before the end of February.

An analysis by a blockchain analytics firm revealed that six newly created accounts reportedly earned a combined profit of about $1 million after correctly predicting the timing of the event.

The activity has raised concerns about whether some traders may have acted on privileged or early-access information.

While the trades could reflect heightened geopolitical speculation, analysts warned that anonymous betting environments tied to sensitive global events can encourage informed participants to act early, creating ethical and regulatory challenges.

Earlier in the year, another analytics firm flagged a rise in bets concerning leadership instability in Iran, including wagers tied to the tenure of the country’s supreme leader.

These trends have intensified scrutiny of prediction markets connected to war and political transitions.

Industry leaders have pushed back against claims that such platforms incentivize violence, stating that markets directly tied to death are prohibited and that safeguards are in place to prevent people from profiting from loss of life.

Source: TechCrunch