Oil prices are projected to remain largely steady in 2025, as rising supply from both OPEC+ and non-OPEC producers is balanced by uncertainty over Russian exports, a Reuters poll revealed on Tuesday.

A survey of 32 economists and analysts forecast Brent crude to average $67.61 per barrel this year, only slightly below last month’s $67.65 projection. Brent stood at $67.22 early on Tuesday, after averaging close to $69.90 per barrel so far in 2025.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is expected to average $64.39 this year, compared with August’s forecast of $64.65.

The U.S. benchmark traded at $62.70 early on Tuesday, having averaged around $66.60 year-to-date. Analysts said prices are caught in “a tug of war,” with added supply from OPEC+ and northern Iraq offset by risks of disrupted Russian output, according to Saxo Bank strategist Ole Hansen.

Earlier this month, OPEC+ agreed to boost production by another 137,000 barrels per day starting in October, lifting its total 2025 increases to more than 2.5 million barrels per day.

Rising output from non-OPEC producers has also fueled fears of oversupply, raising the risk of a surplus as global demand shows signs of softening. Weak economic growth, compounded by trade tariffs, is expected to weigh further on consumption.

Still, Russia’s role in global energy markets remains a major wild card. Analysts warned that sanctions, infrastructure damage, or Moscow’s own policy shifts could disrupt supply and provide support to prices.

Russia has already imposed a partial ban on diesel exports until year-end and extended its gasoline export ban, measures announced by Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak after Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries.

The International Energy Agency, in its latest monthly report, projected world oil supply to rise faster than demand in the near term, leading to a potential surplus by 2026.

The outlook contrasts with OPEC’s more optimistic view, highlighting ongoing uncertainty in global markets. For now, analysts expect oil prices to remain stable, caught between rising supply and the unpredictable path of Russian exports.

Source: Reuters.