BP said on Thursday it now expects global oil demand to keep rising until 2030, five years later than its previous forecast of 2025. The revision, outlined in its latest Energy Outlook report, reflects what the company described as slowed progress in improving energy efficiency and transitioning to cleaner fuels. The study, which projects energy trends through 2050, highlights the challenges of balancing global energy demand with emissions reduction targets.

The report lays out two scenarios: a “Current Trajectory” case based on existing policies and pledges, and a “Below 2-Degrees” case that envisions a 90% reduction in carbon emissions by 2050 from 2023 levels. Under the first scenario, oil demand continues to rise for the rest of the decade before plateauing, while natural gas demand grows through liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports. BP projects LNG trade will reach about 900 billion cubic meters by 2035, with over half of supplies sourced from the U.S. and the Middle East.

The outlook also underscores the lasting impact of Europe’s shift away from Russian energy. BP expects the European Union’s imports of Russian pipeline gas to remain at about 15 billion cubic meters annually—roughly half pre-war levels—for decades to come. This aligns with wider efforts by EU member states to diversify supply chains and strengthen energy security.

BP’s revision puts it closer to forecasts from competitors such as Shell, which estimates global LNG demand by 2040 will range between 630 million and 718 million metric tons annually, equivalent to around 860 to 980 billion cubic meters. Analysts note the competing estimates highlight uncertainty over the pace of the energy transition, particularly as countries grapple with geopolitical risks and economic headwinds.

The new projections also reflect the tension between climate goals and energy realities. While governments and companies push for reduced reliance on fossil fuels, consumption trends remain robust in emerging markets and industrial sectors. BP’s forecast suggests that the path to net zero could prove longer and more complex than initially expected, with oil and gas maintaining a central role in the global energy mix through the next decade.

Source: Reuters.