Thailand’s exports grew 11% year-on-year in July, surpassing the 9.6% Reuters poll forecast, though slowing from June’s 15.5% expansion.

The strong performance was driven by accelerated shipments ahead of U.S. tariff implementations, which took effect in August. For the first seven months of 2025, exports rose 14.4%, maintaining the ministry’s full-year growth projection of 2–3%, with potential upside due to earlier momentum.

Commerce Ministry officials attributed the July surge to importers rushing orders before new U.S. tariffs—including levies on Chinese goods and potential secondary impacts—could disrupt trade flows. The United States remains Thailand’s largest export destination, accounting for 18.3% of total shipments valued at $55 billion in 2024.

Imports increased 5.1% in July, slightly above expectations, resulting in a $320 million trade surplus instead of the anticipated $500 million deficit. This reflects robust domestic demand for raw materials and intermediate goods used in export manufacturing, particularly in electronics, agriculture, and automotive sectors.

Looking ahead, the Trade Policy and Strategy Office expects export growth to moderate in the remaining five months of 2025 as tariff-related front-loading fades and global demand adjusts to new trade barriers. Key challenges include elevated shipping costs, geopolitical uncertainties, and competitive devaluations among regional exporters.

Thailand’s export resilience underscores its strategic role in global supply chains, though policymakers remain cautious about overreliance on the U.S. market. Diversification efforts and bilateral trade negotiations are likely to intensify amid evolving tariff landscapes and shifting regional trade dynamics.

Source: Reuters.